Creativity–by APJ

“Learning brings creativity

Creativity nurtures thinking

Thinking leads to knowledge

Knowledge makes you Great”

Warren Buffett May Be Getting Unwanted Phone Call from Goldman Sachs - CNBC

I think Warren is D only guy who has the power and knows the know how's to whip these kings of WallStreet from a small street in Nebraska.

Read this article attached with a link to CNBC newsletter, and you will know how much he (Warren) has taken a risk over a period of 2 - years by investing in GS, and not just aimed at just the return on investment but as well he locked in with GS on a PPS of $115 as warrants. When he locked that deal on warrants, the price was some where less than that, which made GS easily accept the offer as well. He knew the real possible value of GS over a 3 years period, while even GS couldn't estimate it in that downturn (a person / organization in panic really underestimates his / her own capability and worth becomes true and Warren has clearly used it to his best) . Companies should always up-sell them selfs even in downturn is what one should learn from this deal that GS gave to Warren.

Warren Buffett May Be Getting Unwanted Phone Call from Goldman Sachs - CNBC

"Even while one has lost the game, never under quote your value, because there is always a game after that."

Cloud computing - Adaptation is a challenge

        Internet is poised to be available in every single electronic device before the end 2050 (let assume – it might be earlier than that too). As you might observe, we are currently seeing mostly IP addresses that are of the format xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx (32 bits long), and this will soon max out, i.e. we are have almost exploited 2^32 different unique web addresses. With all this in place, you see your mobile phone which is connected to the internet (usually if it’s a Smart Phone), and the number of smart phones in usage is expected to grow over 200% over the next couple of years, and when so many number of smart phone are used, each will need its IP address where we might definitely exploit the remaining few IPv4 Addresses. Will that break the Internet? No. Possibly not, because IPv6 (next gen) is ready and I believe a lot more companies have started to develop their devices IPv6 compatible, even if some hardware is currently not compatible, its firmware (software embedded within the hardware) can be flashed with the new version which is IPv6 compatible and continue to survive the upbeat around IPv6 era. So this will form a platform for expansion of cloud further, and will the users get to experience this transition? May be! But, with the way technology has aligned itself in a way to make it transparent for users. So you might suddenly see that your IP address has a 128 bit long address (can accommodate 2^128 unique addresses) instead of the usual 32 bit. Now this should and will form the infrastructure to support the expansion of cloud further and beyond limits of imagination. For example, you might have an IP address for every electrical / electronic device (wired or wireless) , at home or mobile, and owner of the device might be able to access it from anywhere to pass or retrive information. The device basically should have a cache, but real data that the device processes might be in the cloud.

        I remember my Professor for Network Engineering who is working for BAE gave us some freezing ideas on the way future will be engineered with identification and tracking of every single object (including humans) that’s moving around in any place as big as a city like New York, by using a unique IP for each object. But that’s way too far, since the level of infrastructure needed to make it perfect is far beyond what we can setup in next 5 decades.

        Having said that the platform to accommodate expansion of cloud being ready, we can now dive into and see the possibilities of what could be observed as a future in this cloud. In clear sense, One should be able to access any device/data (that they have privilege to access) from any where they want to. A few stones need to be turned before that’s reached. Accessing any device / data is not just the requirement, but a need that has to be met. Let’s assume you want to print a document, and this should be done in such a way that you have access to the document from any device of your choice, and you should be able to send it to a printer of your choice, where ever you are. In other words, document / data should not be in a closed box, but in the cloud for you to access from anywhere. I still see my friends who are reluctant to upload their data to a different place / server. If you observe the transition from Mainframe to Client-server, it was lead by Large Businesses at first and later followed by Small Businesses, and then it was further utilized by end users. With the cloud computing we are talking about a transition from Client-server to Cloud. Large and Small Businesses are reluctant to switch to Cloud based infrastructure for their businesses, primarily because of Security concerns etc. of leaving their data exposed to open world, and it has lead to creation of a subset of cloud called Private Cloud. This in reality does not serve the purpose. I see that, with unprecedented growth of Social Network in today’s world, we can observe that end users, are ready to export their data (to certain extent) to the cloud, and cloud based services appear to grow without much hindrance around user centric data. Also I do see that certain providers have begun to master the reliability and safety of such data. In other words, the real Client-server to Cloud transition appears to best work in a reverse adaptation process of that which was followed for Mainframe to Client-server. When the technology is matured enough to satisfy end users on cloud based applications, it should be safe enough for Small and Large Businesses to convert their Private Cloud to real Cloud based infrastructure. Though we talk and hear about cloud computing to greater extent these days, a complete implementation will be a real challenge.

Lexus - simul.

I think Oracle is loosing.

Google Answer and Counterclaims v. Oracle (Filed)

Gold Price surge over $1300 and will reach $2000 soon – how ? Lets see.

Around 1980’s the price of gold surged from $200 to $850 (Why?)

Situation in 1980’s (around) : 1) Inflation (double digit),

2) Commodities price were surging, and

3) Soviet was in War in mid east, as a result Oil was inflated too.

4) As a result of above 2, there was fear of instability. Inflation was driven by cause 2 and 3.

5) In 1971 Nixon changed that gold is not going to be standards any more for currency, and countries were getting used to new model, where in reality they had trouble working with the new system in controlling inflation (obviously it was a new system in the era of mainframes where study was all on papers)

Result :

Inflation adjusted gold price was surging.

Major factors

Fear of instability in the world (since one of major world powers were at war),  and Inflation contributed by fear at war in mid east + new currency system in place with new double digit inflation rates.

Comparing it to today's world

Current Situation: 1) Fear of systemic risk with the economies of world where real numbers appear more to be just as temporary results (short lived) because of excessive volatility in the market. (Couldn't point the actual direction of the move)

2) Commodities price are under control in Developed Nations, and out of control in developing nations. (As said in those days systems dint exist to control this, but now with that in place, banks find it as a way to give the economy to start purchasing more)

3) Inflation is triggered in Developed Nations, but system does not respond, but Developing nations have high inflation. ( Inflation is healthy if by demand, but not due to short of supply & Developed Nations are cat on the wall with this factor)

4) Developing nations have and are buying debt from Developed Nations, in other words, liquidity should reduce in developing nations and increase is in Developed nations. It appears that liquidity which is needed to be present in Developed Nations where central banks expect inflation to be triggered as a result of it, but actual investment and liquidity increases every day in Developing nations. Watch this!!! Emerging market Investment opportunities appears to be the drain hole here.

5) On the whole, basic factors for gold surge such as Inflation and fear of systemic failure of world economy is still there, but where and how its present is what that needs to be defined.

Inflation should be expected only where there is liquidity or surge of liquidity. One cannot expect water out of a dried out spring. But in which part the world inflation is currently going up? its in developing nations, but finally its there.. so nothing to worry. Its a concern that, its not there in Developed Nations, and it makes sense that it need not be present, as liquidity never appears to be present or take shape in Developed nations as its expected to be because of few drains which emerged as a result of globalization.

Fear, the next factor. Should we teach economist and media of how to propagate fear? Never. They will do better a job, and they are doing it. Actually fear does exists, because , system that's suppose to work in a world of globalization which was child of capitalism doesn't seem to obey the law of its parent. Banks in developed nations expect a spin up in economy to drive inflation, but they don't have a system to stop its child (globalization) or control it that's created some drain pipes, because if they do that, Bonds will have to be paid down finally & that's something that's not possible now, unless developed nations start producing more than what they consume. Well finally fear exist in markets where investments are triggered. Its like 10% of developed economy is happy that they are able to stay in control of funds invested in Developing nations where they pay and maintain 60% of its economy. But the rest 90% of developed economy keeps consuming the produce of 90% of developing nations. Do you get it? Yes, globalization should slow down.. Well, what's here now is what's here.. . Finally “ If a system is known, and works the way we want to, there is nothing to worry. “ But, here a System is evolving, and investors who play by probability, cannot come up with a number to play with their investments, till they system is studied well. Fear will exists for any one in a new planet till the planet is mapped. So does this, system needs to be mapped of how its going to work. Till then fear will exists.

Conclusion:

Till the time, Fear stops growing, and Inflation happens where its expected to happen, certain assets that investors count on basis of perfect probability will continue to grow. Gold does satisfy this, as its used every where in the world, and especially used as a real world commodity in places like India and China. If their banks buy those gold reserves, it does makes sense, as we expect that's where current liquidity should be.

My estimations:

By Factor of Inflation:

Just by considering an ideal system an counting on US inflation from 1980 till now, we see an inflation of 200% over 30 years, and I expect gold to be hovering around $1200-1250 if thing were same as 1980.

Globalization is a like the savior here. Thanks. Do you know why? Money / Liquidity does not matter any more as long as its any where in this world. I don't need to worry any more about Inflation just in US alone any more. Global inflation especially including China and India should be considered, and we could see by 2011 we should see gold hit a price of $1500. Cumulating the inflation hedge alone with eliminating of fear factor that's present now in this new global economy, we can be sure, that gold can hit a price of $2000 by mid of 2011 or late 2011.

By Factor of Dollar Index:

History shows that Dollar goes up, gold goes down. Inverse proportion. Since dollar is further dipping, gold hasn't surged that much.. Why? Reason, significance of Dollar Index in relation to gold is affected by other stable currencies.

By Factor of Fear:

Truly there is no number for fear factor in Index. But this is just a hype. Tomorrow if we see news flashing with good numbers , this fear could be equal to nothing. I would say, there is a slight fear factor for Investors who are not able to formulate they economy. I would say, still fear factor is near minimal at the moment or its effect on gold price might have been there when mid east unrest was due to war in Iraq, but now its no more. NATO is having control of dry lands of Afghanistan. And this country in history had minimal significance in world economy, so does it now. May be NATO lost , world still does not looses anything, but if the War is won by NATO, then its good, as one more nation will join the bandwagon of manufacturing nations to supply batteries to power car in 2020 and beyond. So no loss nor gain. Spending on War just helps the economy as well. No doubt, some one gets the money when they sell weapon, and it comes back to the system of economy, increasing liquidity. But when the current system model is identified, that's the point where Gold will start its revision / correction, if there was numbers infused by fear apart form existing global average of Inflation.

Final

Inflation is there, and you can clearly see that its going up(global average).

May be a rebalance of where Inflation will happen might change in future. But there is so much liquidity to be experienced, when the new system is mapped and hauled.

Gold follows this global inflation numbers now, and will continue to do it.

FOR THE FUTURE

High speed computing could impact with sever repercussion's if not corrected now (I mean the algorithm and the bureaucracy around it)

 

Read this -> SEC, CFTC blame algorithm for flash crash - MarketWatch

 

Gambling not just in casinos any more.

Any one with a good suit of IT Infrastructure(High speed) can experience it in NYSE, NASDAQ too.

 

In my blog this is possibly the first reason that I have put under the title "FOR THE FUTURE" where I would like to point out a correctable function that I think needs to be corrected in THIS world where it has turned out to be in 2010 !!! Let me see - if this changes...

Java 7